2026-2028 GTA Market Outlook According to CMHC) - Jordan Nanowski
Jordan Nanowski is CMHC’s lead economist and spokesperson for the Greater Toronto Area housing market. He provides forecasts, analysis, and commentary on developments in the resale, rental, and new home markets. Jordan joined the CMHC back in 2017, bringing his strong analytical and research skills to delve into the complexities of Canada’s largest housing market. He previously worked as an international development economist and has published academic papers in this field.
CMHC’s GTA Market Outlook (2026–2028):
In this episode, Payam hosts CMHC lead economist for the Greater Toronto Area, Jordan Nanowski, to discuss CMHC’s newly released housing market outlook with a focus on the GTA and Ontario for 2026–2028. Jordan explains how CMHC forecasts combine quantitative modelling with qualitative market intelligence from stakeholders, emphasizing forecasts as fluid “educated guesses,” especially in today’s uncertain environment.
A major driver of the outlook is uncertainty tied to renegotiation of the USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) and potential tariff impacts, which affect Ontario more than some regions and vary by local exposure to US exports. The conversation then focuses on what makes the GTA unique: pandemic-era low interest rates, high immigration and non-permanent resident inflows, and strong investor activity helped fuel heavy condo construction, leading to a condo supply glut even amid a broader housing crisis. Rising interest rates changed the economics for investors (higher carrying costs, weaker rent growth, and reduced price appreciation), contributing to sluggish condo conditions and near-absent presales.
Nanowski notes demand is shifting toward more “missing middle” and family-suitable housing as millennials enter peak household-formation years, though feasibility is difficult for developers. They discuss CMHC’s expectation that prices decline in 2026 with growth beginning in 2027, improving economic stability as a key factor, and the report’s view that downside risks are more likely than upside due to trade uncertainty. They also cover construction labor dynamics: as projects dry up, labor leaves the residential sector, creating future friction when market conditions reverse—likely around 2028 and beyond given the pipeline. For rental markets, Nanowski expects vacancy to peak in 2025 and then recover, noting GTA migration changes and federal policy shifts affecting non-permanent residents, while immigration targets remain above pre-pandemic levels.
They touch on additional CMHC topical reports (condo market risk, mortgage delinquency trends) and end with cautious optimism about GTA resilience and the potential for a longer-term market reversal and improved conditions once uncertainty eases.
- What CMHC Economists Actually Do (Forecasting vs. Programs)
- How the Forecast Is Built: Models, Stakeholders & Scenario Risks
- The Big Macro Wildcard: USMCA/Tariffs & Uncertainty Across Canada
- Why the GTA Is Different: Pandemic-Era Perfect Storm
- Condo Supply Glut, Investor Math & The Future of Small Units
- Report Takeaways: Slow Growth, Construction Labor Cycles & ‘Supply Kinks’
- Foreign Buyer Ban & Policy Levers: Why Investment Pulled Back
- Pandemic Rate Cuts, Inflation Tradeoffs & Immigration Balancing Act
- GTA Forecast: 2026 Price Bottom, 2027 Recovery & Condo Domino Effects
- Downside Risks: Trade Uncertainty (CUSMA) as the Big Forecast Driver
- Developer Playbook: Stress-Testing PBRs & Missing Middle for the Next 3 Years
- Rental Market Reality Check: Vacancy, Rent Assumptions & Migration Shifts
- Leading Indicators to Watch: Inventory, Starts, Completions & Permits
- Wrap-Up: Nation-Building Optimism, Magic Wand Wish & Resilience AheadMa
Construction Innovation Checklist
This document is a supplementary resource to
episode #24 of the Real Estate Development
Insights Podcast in which Payam Noursalehi shares a practical framework for evaluating and selecting the most suitable innovative systems for your next project.
